How We Think
Real Properties. Real Underwriting.
Most operators only show you the deals they bought. We show the ones we passed on, the ones we watched, and the ones we're writing offers on right now — with full numbers.
We Passed
4BR Mountain-View Cabin
"Looks great on paper. Doesn't pencil at this price."
Deal Inputs
Underwriting (Year 1)
Comp set median; we underwrite to 90% of this.
Conservative vs. 68% comp avg.
38% of gross — STR tax, cleaning, utilities, insurance, PM tech.
0.6% cash-on-cash. Effectively zero.
What We Liked
- +Strong view corridor, walk to attractions
- +Recently updated kitchen & primary bath
- +Existing rental history shows $58K gross — real, not projected
What Concerned Us
- −Seller pricing 18% above comparable sold properties from Q3 2025
- −HOA at $4,200/yr with rumored special assessment for road maintenance
- −Comp set ADR has compressed 6% over trailing 12 months
- −At 7.25% debt, every 5% ADR miss turns this negative
Our Call
If the seller drops to $585K we run it again. At list, we'd need either rates back below 6.5% or a +15% ADR thesis we can't honestly defend. We pass and tell the broker exactly why.
Methodology
The Filters We Run Every Deal Through.
Comp Set Reality
We underwrite to 90% of comp ADR. If the seller's projection assumes top-decile performance Day 1, that's a flag.
Insurance First
Insurance is now the #1 swing variable in coastal and mountain markets. We get a real quote before we get serious.
Cash Buffer
Every deal must hold 6 months of debt service in reserve. No exceptions, regardless of cash-flow projections.
Exit Math
We model a 5-year sale at flat appreciation. If the numbers only work with 4%+ annual appreciation, we pass.
See One You Like?
Live Deals Are Investor-Gated.
Active opportunities — including pricing, full memo, and the underlying spreadsheet — are shared with verified investors only.